Winters Joint USD

Attendance Recovery Projections

Summer 2025 Program Simulation

First 30 Days Analysis
AR Projections Report
3 Schools

This report projects potential Attendance Recovery (AR) funding based on the first 30 days of the 2025-26 After School Expanded Learning Program. The simulation assumes a 30-day summer AR program with 2 hours of AR instruction per attendance.

Projected AR Revenue
$44,975
With 10-Day Cap Applied
Students
64
Across 3 Schools
Days Recovered
628.5
9.82 Avg per Student
Avg per Student
$703
Near Max Recovery

How This Projection Was Created

Programs Selected

To create this projection, we selected one after-school program from each Winters school that had strong attendance and at least 30 operational days in the fall. These programs represent typical high-performing after-school programs at each school:

School Program Grade Level Students Program Days
Shirley Rominger Intermediate Group A - 4th Grade After School 4th 25 76 days
Waggoner Elementary TK After School Program TK 21 76 days
Winters Middle School 6th Grade After School 6th 18 76 days

The Process

  1. Selected the First 30 Days: We looked at the first 30 days of attendance from each program (August 13 - September 24, 2025) to simulate what a 30-day summer program might look like.
  2. Calculated AR Hours: For each day a student attended, we counted 2 hours (120 minutes) of Attendance Recovery instruction—the typical duration of an after-school session.
  3. Converted to AR Days: We added up each student's AR hours and converted them to "AR days recovered" using California's formula (180 minutes = 1 AR day for elementary, 240 minutes = 1 AR day for middle school).
  4. Applied the 10-Day Cap: California limits each student to recovering a maximum of 10 days per year. Since we couldn't verify how many days each student was actually absent, we conservatively capped everyone at 10 days.
  5. Calculated Funding: We used California's LCFF funding formula with Winters' 72% Unduplicated Pupil Percentage to project how much revenue these recovered days would generate.

Why a "Summer Simulation"? Nicole Jordan wanted to see what a 30-day summer Attendance Recovery program could generate. Since Winters hasn't run a summer AR program yet, we used real fall attendance data from your highest-performing after-school programs to create a realistic projection. The students in this projection showed excellent attendance—averaging nearly 20 out of 30 days—which translated to 9.82 recoverable days per student.

Executive Summary

Metric Value
Total Students 64
Total Attendance Records (First 30 Days) 1,275
Average Attendance Rate 66.4% (20 of 30 days)
Total AR Hours (120 min/attendance) 2,550 hours
AR Days with 10-Day Cap 628.5 days
Average Days per Student 9.82 days
Projected AR Revenue (10-Day Cap) $44,975

Revenue by School

Revenue Distribution
Shirley Rominger Int.
$17,051
Waggoner Elementary
$15,706
Winters Middle School
$12,218
School Grade Students Days Funding Avg/Student
Shirley Rominger Intermediate 4th 25 244.67 $17,051 $682
Waggoner Elementary TK 21 208.50 $15,706 $748
Winters Middle School 6th 18 175.33 $12,218 $679
TOTAL 64 628.50 $44,975 $703

What-If Projections

Explore how scaling the program could impact AR revenue. All projections use Winters' 65.96% UPP and 2024-25 LCFF rates.

Current Current Projection
$44,975
Based on 64 students from fall programs
Students 64
Avg Days 9.82
Total Days 629
+56% Scale to 100 Students
$70,277
Maintain 9.82 avg days per student
Students 100
Avg Days 9.82
Total Days 982
+213% Scale to 200 Students
$140,554
Maintain 9.82 avg days per student
Students 200
Avg Days 9.82
Total Days 1,964
-19% 64 Students at 8 Days
$36,637
If current cohort had lower attendance
Students 64
Avg Days 8.0
Total Days 512
+27% 100 Students at 8 Days
$57,246
Scale up with moderate attendance
Students 100
Avg Days 8.0
Total Days 800
+155% 200 Students at 8 Days
$114,492
Large scale with moderate attendance
Students 200
Avg Days 8.0
Total Days 1,600
Key Insight
This projection shows strong potential! Based on the attendance patterns from these after-school programs, a dedicated summer AR program could recover an average of 9.82 days per student. The real opportunity is in scaling the program to serve more students. Even with a more conservative 8-day average per student, serving 200 students would generate $114,492—a 155% increase from the current 64-student projection. Maintaining this high attendance level at scale (9.82 days with 200 students) could generate $140,554.

Methodology

Data Sources

  • Attendance Data: First 30 days of 2025-26 After School Expanded Learning Programs (Aug 13 - Sep 24, 2025)
  • AR Calculation: Each attendance = 120 minutes (2 hours) of AR instruction
  • Funding Formula: LCFF rates for 2024-25 with 65.96% UPP multiplier (1.187)

Base Grants by Grade (2024-25)

Grade Level Base Grant per ADA Min. Daily Minutes
TK/K $11,938 180 min (3.0 hrs)
Grades 4-6 $10,570 240 min (4.0 hrs)

Assumptions & Limitations

1
The 2024 UPP (65.96%) is used for 2025 projections. Winters qualifies for Concentration Grant (UPP > 55%).
2
10-day cap applied to all students as a conservative projection baseline.
3
Each attendance session was 2 hours (120 minutes) of AR-eligible instruction.
4
All sessions met California AR program requirements (staffing ratios, certificated supervision, outside regular school day).
5
Actual funding will depend on verified student absences. Students can only recover days they were actually absent.

Understanding Attendance Recovery

A complete guide to California's AR program, how funding works, and what this report shows. Written for educators presenting to school boards and administrators.

1

What is Attendance Recovery?

Attendance Recovery (AR) is a California state program that allows school districts to recoup funding for students who were absent during regular school hours. When a student misses school, the district loses state funding for that day. AR provides a way to recover some of that lost funding by offering additional instructional time outside the regular school day.

The Key Concept

When students attend AR sessions (like after-school programs), the district can claim partial ADA (Average Daily Attendance) credit for days they were previously absent. This translates directly into state funding through California's LCFF formula.

Who Can Participate?

  • Students in grades TK through 12 who have been absent during the regular school year
  • Each student can recover up to 10 days maximum per school year
  • Sessions must occur outside regular school hours (before school, after school, weekends, or breaks)
  • Sessions must be supervised by certificated teachers at specific ratios

Common AR Session Types

  • ELOP Programs (Expanded Learning Opportunities Program) — After-school enrichment
  • Saturday School — Weekend make-up sessions
  • Summer Programs — Extended year opportunities
  • Intersession Programs — During school breaks
2

How AR Funding Works

California funds schools through the Local Control Funding Formula (LCFF). The amount a district receives depends on student attendance (ADA) and the district's Unduplicated Pupil Percentage (UPP).

The Three Grant Components

Base Grant

Every student generates a base amount of funding based on their grade level. This is the foundation of LCFF funding.

Grade Band 2024-25 Rate per ADA
TK-3$11,068
Grades 4-6$10,177
Grades 7-8$10,478
Grades 9-12$12,460

Supplemental Grant

Districts receive additional funding based on their UPP — the percentage of students who are English learners, low-income, or foster youth.

// Supplemental Grant Formula
Supplemental = Base Grant x ADA x UPP x 20%

For Winters with 65.96% UPP, this means an additional 13.19% on top of the base grant (65.96% x 20%).

Concentration Grant

Districts with UPP above 55% receive even more funding. This additional grant is calculated on the portion of UPP that exceeds the 55% threshold.

// Concentration Grant Formula (only if UPP > 55%)
Concentration = Base Grant x ADA x (UPP - 55%) x 65%

Note: Winters has a 65.96% UPP, which is 10.96% above the threshold, so they qualify for the Concentration Grant.

Calculating ADA from AR Sessions

When a student attends an AR session, they don't earn a full day of ADA. Instead, they earn a fraction based on California's 180-day school year:

// ADA Calculation
ADA Units = Days Recovered / 180 instructional days

// Example: Student recovers 5 days
5 / 180 = 0.0278 ADA
3

Minimum Session Requirements

To count toward AR, each session must meet minimum time requirements that vary by grade level. These requirements ensure students receive meaningful instructional time.

Grade Level Minimum Minutes per Day Minimum Hours
TK and Kindergarten180 minutes3.0 hours
Grades 1-3230 minutes3.83 hours
Grades 4-6240 minutes4.0 hours
Grades 7-8240 minutes4.0 hours
Grades 9-12240 minutes4.0 hours

Important Compliance Notes

  • Students can only recover one day per calendar day — even if they attend multiple sessions
  • Maximum of 10 days per student per year
  • Sessions must be supervised by certificated teachers at required ratios
  • Sessions must occur outside regular school hours
  • Proper documentation must be maintained for audits
4

Glossary of Terms

ADA Average Daily Attendance — the metric California uses to allocate school funding. One full day of attendance = 1/180 ADA.
AR Attendance Recovery — the program allowing districts to recoup funding for absent students through additional instructional time.
ELOP Expanded Learning Opportunities Program — after-school and summer programs that can count toward AR.
LCFF Local Control Funding Formula — California's main school funding mechanism, which includes base, supplemental, and concentration grants.
UPP Unduplicated Pupil Percentage — the share of students who are English learners, low-income, or foster youth. Drives supplemental/concentration funding.
Base Grant The foundational per-student funding amount, varying by grade level.
Supplemental Grant Additional funding (20% of base x UPP) for districts serving high-need populations.
Concentration Grant Extra funding for districts with UPP above 55%, calculated on the portion exceeding the threshold.